The ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2023-2024, identifies that the maritime industry’s future, hinges on navigating political instability, cyber threats, and evolving decarbonization demands, with clear regulations and strong collaboration between industry, governments, and regulators being critical to maintaining progress amid growing complexity and uncertainty.
Political instability overtakes pandemic as leading risk in maritime sector
The maritime risk landscape is increasingly shaped by key factors that act as risk multipliers, influencing how industry leaders perceive and respond to various challenges. In recent years, the dominant risk has shifted from the pandemic, which defined the 2020-2021 period, to political instability, now the leading concern. This change has triggered a rise in protectionism and eroded confidence in critical areas such as public funding, traditional shipping routes, and the progress of decarbonization efforts. As a result, fossil fuels are expected to maintain their dominance in maritime energy for the foreseeable future.
Cyber and physical attacks surge amid growing geopolitical uncertainty
This political instability is also tied to the rise in cyber attacks by both state-sponsored and non-state actors, which have increasingly threatened maritime’s expanding digital infrastructure. These cyber threats now rank as the second highest risk for the industry this year. Additionally, geopolitical upheaval has brought malicious physical attacks into the forefront of concerns for the first time, surpassing financial instability. Geoeconomic confrontation and the accompanying protectionism have also emerged as key drivers behind the trends of nearshoring and friendshoring among businesses.
Clear regulations and net zero pathway key to reducing decarbonization fragmentation
Regulations remain the most significant factor influencing business operations, not only highlighting the need for clear and sustainable regulatory frameworks to ensure a level playing field but also enhancing transparency for investors and stakeholders by providing well-defined metrics beyond voluntary standards. The development of an official phased pathway to net zero is expected to reduce the fragmentation of decarbonization efforts, which have varied across regions and sectors depending on public policy and corporate ambitions.
IMO’s net zero agreement boosts stakeholder confidence in low-carbon investments
Confidence is rising following the formal agreement reached at the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) 80 to achieve net zero GHG emissions by or around 2050. According to the ICS Barometer for 2023-2024, nearly 50% of C-suite maritime stakeholders reported increased willingness to invest in low- and zero-carbon solutions as a result of the IMO agreement. Meanwhile, 23% of respondents remain undecided, and 17% feel the agreement has no influence on their decision-making.
Clarity in regulation drives maritime industry’s practical approach to decarbonization
The ICS Maritime Barometer Report acknowledges the increased confidence in the regulatory process underscores the importance of clear guidance from governments and regulatory bodies, demonstrating that companies are taking a pragmatic approach to decarbonization. This approach considers factors such as available fuels and technologies, market demand, and competitive pricing.
To sustain this growing confidence, the ICS Maritime Barometer Report suggests regulatory bodies must implement meaningful policies, ensure strong enforcement, and provide access to funding, all while minimizing administrative burdens.
Evolving fuel landscape shows growing interest in methanol, nuclear, and wind energy
Maritime leaders have shown evolving views on the fuel landscape, with rising interest in methanol, nuclear power, and wind energy, though LNG, biofuels, and HFO with abatement technology continue to dominate industry forecasts for the next decade. Critical factors include the infrastructure available at ports to supply fuel, market competition driving fuel availability, and the establishment of global and regional regulations that ensure safe operational standards.
Energy security and resilience efforts expected to complicate the maritime operating environment
As many countries focus on building internal resilience and enhancing energy security—particularly through investments in both fossil fuel and renewable energy infrastructure—respondents expect the operating environment to become more complex. Challenges are likely to arise from shifting trade routes, reduced public and private funding, and a shortage of skilled labor. Increasing demands for decarbonization regulations to create a level playing field are now accompanied by concerns about commercial viability and incentives, especially as green investments have yet to materialize on the scale needed for a rapid transition.
Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty call for stronger collaboration across Sectors
While some of these challenges are seen as manageable, the ICS Maritime Barometer Report suggests the uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and regulatory landscapes emphasizes the need for closer collaboration between industry players, governments, and regulators. Steady progress can only be achieved when resources are not diverted to emerging issues and there is clear direction toward shared goals.
Download the full report: ICS Barometer Report 23-24
